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Unemployment in August

Above 4.1%

Above 4.2%

US retail sales in July

Above -0.2%

Above 0.0%

August 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP

U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: Below 50k

U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k

State of the economy at the end of 2026

Soft landing

Overheating

TSA avg check-ins from Aug 10 to 16, 2026?

Above 2.55 million

Above 2.8 million

Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?

Exactly 4.1%

Exactly 4.2%

Jobs numbers in Aug 2026?

Above 50,000

Above 60,000

Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?

Above 50,000

Above 60,000

Will at least 50% of scheduled flights at JFK be cancelled on October 21, 2026?

China unemployment rate in July

Above 5.0%

Above 5.1%

Canadian trips to the U.S. down 20% in 2026?

Brazil unemployment rate in July

Above 5.4%

Above 5.0%

Unemployment in September

Above 4.1%

Above 4.2%

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

Above 4.5%

Above 4.8%

South Africa unemployment rate in Q3

Above 32.5%

Above 33.0%

UK retail sales in July

Above -1.0%

Above 0.0%

Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?

Exactly 4.3%

Exactly 4.1%

US flight cancellations for the week ending at 5pm EDT on 8/14

Above 5,000

Above 6,000

Australia unemployment rate in July

Above 4.4%

Above 4.5%

Auto-loan delinquencies in Q3 2026

Above 5.2%

Above 5.6%

Will AI be the #1 reason for job cuts in August?

Mexico unemployment rate in July

Above 2.9%

Above 2.8%

Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, 2026

At least 200,000

At least 210,000

Unemployment in November

Above 4.2%

Above 4.3%

US Challenger job cuts in August

Above 60,000

Above 70,000

Illinois pension debt in 2026?

Above $145 billion

Above $150 billion

Will Tesla layoff 3,000 employees before October 1, 2026?

Unemployment in October

Above 4.2%

Above 4.3%

Will youth unemployment fall below 7.5% in 2026?

ADP employment change in Aug 2026?

Above 50000

Above 75000

ADP employment change in Nov 2026?

Above 25000

Above 50000

ADP employment change in Oct 2026?

Above 0

Above 50000

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